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Posted by Bret Devereaux

This week we’re going to take a look at mercenaries in the ancient Mediterranean world! This was one of the runners-up in the latest ACOUP Senate poll, coming out of quite a few requests to discuss how mercenaries functioned in antiquity. In order to keep the scope here manageable and within my expertise, I am going to confine myself to mercenaries in the Classical (480-323) and Hellenistic (323-31) Mediterranean, but we’ll have more than enough to talk about within that framework.

Mercenary soldiers make frequent appearances in our sources for these periods and as a result also are often prominent in modern representations of warfare in the ancient Mediterranean, showing up, for instance, as a standard feature of strategy games (Rome: Total War; Imperator, etc.) set in the period. That said, while our sources often note the presence of mercenaries, the actual mechanics – who serves, how are they recruited, how are they paid and so on – are often more obscure (though not entirely so!). So that is what we are going to focus on here, not an exhaustive list of every known mercenary outfit in antiquity (you can consult the short bibliography below for that) but rather an outline of the subject with a focus on mechanics.

I do want to note there are two things I couldn’t fit in here. The first was a complete discussion of the Carthaginian army and the different soldiers who served in it. We’re going to do that, but not here and not right away (this year, though, I think). The second is that I do not really get into here how specific mercenary troops fought – Tarantine cavalry tactics, Cretan archery, thureophoroi and so on. We’ve discussed some of that, actually, in our treatment of Hellenistic armies, but the rest of it will have to wait for another day. In my defense, this post is already 7,600 words long.

But first, as always, if you like what you are reading here, please share it; if you really like it, you can support me on Patreon; members at the Patres et Matres Conscripti level get to vote on the topics for post-series like this one! If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

(Further Reading Note: For a very long time, the standard references on this topic were H.W. Parke, Greek Mercenary Soldiers from the Earliest Times to the Battle of Ipsus (1933) and G.T. Griffith, The Mercenaries of the Hellenistic World (1935). These days, Parke has largely been replaced as a reference by M. Trundle, Greek Mercenaries: from the late archaic period to Alexander (2004), while Griffith remains the standard reference for mercenary service in the Hellenistic period. For a somewhat broader but still Mediterranean focus, S. Yalichev, Mercenaries of the Ancient World (1997) offers a lot of coverage. Note also S. English, Mercenaries in the Classical World to the Death of Alexander (2012), which is one of those examples of a quite solid book languishing as a Pen & Sword title; I’d say Trundle is to be preferred to English, but the latter is by no means bad – I detected no great or terrible errors in it and it may be easier to get a hold of.)

Defining Mercenaries

However before we can even dive into outlining mercenary service in antiquity, we need to clarify exactly who we mean when we discuss mercenaries. One of the challenges in discussing mercenaries is that some of our sources – most notably Polybius – are deliberately slippery with their use of terms. As a result, it is often very easy to end up in a situation where a translation (faithfully translated!) describes a given set of soldiers as ‘mercenaries’ who are not, by modern definitions, mercenaries at all! Indeed, much of the notion of ‘mercenary armies’ evaporates when we actually investigate the conditions under which many of these so-called ‘mercenaries’ were recruited.

The primarily culprit here is a Greek word, μισθοφόρος (misthophoros), which is often translated as ‘mercenary’ and indeed had that meaning in antiquity, but our sources – again, particularly Polybius – play fast and loose with the broad meaning of the term and the narrow meaning. The narrow meaning of misthophoros is that of a mercenary soldier – a soldier serving purely for pay with no real attachment to the state they fight for – but the broad meaning is its literal one: ‘wage-bearing’ (a μισθός being a wage, distinct from σίτος or σιτώνιον, both literally “bread [money/supply]” and thus ‘basic maintenance’ – μισθός is pay in excess of basic maintenance).1 So while a misthophoros could be a foreign mercenary serving for pay – that misthos – they could equally be a domestic soldier who, for whatever reason, was paid a wage.

When we think of mercenaries, we generally think of foreign soldiers fighting for a country for the sake of money, rather than any commitment to the cause. Greek authors can easily make this clear by describing soldiers as ξενικός, (xenikos, ‘foreign’), but they often don’t or blur these categories. The issue is that, of course many soldiers who are not mercenaries might still be paid a wage in excess of basic maintenance.

And that brings us to Polybius, the worst offender in the ‘fudging the definition of mercenaries’ category. Polybius is famously the source for the claim that Carthage’s armies were both “foreign” (xenikos) and “mercenary” (misthophoros).2 Generations of readers and scholars have carelessly accepted that description but it is fundamentally a deception. This isn’t the place to fully describe the Carthaginian military system (I discuss this more in my book project!) but the backbone of Carthaginian armies were infantry drawn from Carthage’s North African territories. Polybius is happy to describe these fellows as misthophoroi and let his readership follow his lead into assuming the narrow (‘mercenary’) definition, which is wrong, rather than the broad definition (‘wage-bearing’) where he is accurate.

Polybius rarely lies to your face, but he absolutely bends words and facts to make his arguments seem more plausible. In particular, Polybius is looking to set up a contrast between what he views as the inferiority of Carthage’s ‘mercenary’ armies as compared to the martial excellence and moral purity of Rome’s armies of citizen soldiers. So he wants to emphasize the mercenary nature of Carthage’s armies and minimize the same about Rome.

But here’s how those North African troops were organized. Carthage had expanded its control over many communities in North Africa and evidently alongside the taxes they had to pay to Carthage, part of subordination was that they were liable for conscription. When Carthaginian generals raised armies, after enrolling any Carthaginian citizen volunteers, they would head out into Carthage’s African subject communities and conscript troops (ἐπιλέγειν, ‘to pick out’) from these communities.3 These conscripts were then evidently paid a wage for their service and seem to have functioned something like semi-professional forces, often serving on quite long campaigns. These are not mercenaries by our definition! They are not foreign, but rather subject communities being conscripted from within the territory that Carthage controlled – not very different from how Rome raised the forces of the socii (the main difference being Rome made the socii communities pay their soldiers; Carthage taxes its subjects and then pays the soldiers out of those taxes).

Likewise, we know that early on in Carthaginian history, the Carthaginians recruited Iberian soldiers – men from the Mediterranean coast of Spain – as mercenaries for their armies.4 Fair enough. But by the Second Punic War (218-201), Carthage – or more correctly the Barcids – control the Iberian homelands in Spain. The Barcids – Hamilcar, his son-in-law Hasdrubal the Fair and biological son Hannibal – have moved in with an army, defeated the locals and set themselves up essentially as ‘warlords of warlords’ in a non-state military hierarchy. So when Hannibal and his brother Hasdrubal (different Hasdrubal) raise absolutely massive numbers of Iberians to fight for them, these aren’t mercenaries either, but the native military forces of what are essentially Hannibal’s vassal warlords (what the Romans term reguli, ‘petty kings’). At this point, these Iberians are forces again internal to Carthage’s empire.

Meanwhile Hannibal’s Gauls are also mostly not mercenaries but rather they understand their polities to be allies of Carthage in a joint war against Rome which Hannibal is leading, something made clear in the treaty Carthage makes with Philip V of Macedon, which specifies these allied forces.5 Under that framework relatively few of Carthage’s soldiers in the Second Punic War are actually mercenaries! Instead, Carthage’s army is a patchwork of subject-community conscripts, local allies, vassal levies and troops raised by individual generals through personal relationships – a system that is more akin to the Roman army than any other force in the Mediterranean.

But saying that does nothing for Polybius’ arguments either about Roman martial virtue or his glorification of the Roman citizen-soldier ideal (which one rather gets the impression he thinks the Greeks back home ought to adopt), so he – without ever quite lying – lets the reader believe Carthage’s armies are mostly mercenaries and this is why they are less effective in the field (Polyb. 6.52). It’s a definitional fudge to heighten the contrast.

It isn’t even the only time Polybius plays this trick! In his description of the Ptolemaic army at the Battle of Raphia, Polybius (5.65.6) groups together the cavalry ‘from Greece’ (actual mercenaries from Greece hired by the Ptolemies) with the ‘mercenary [misthophoroi] cavalry’ in a single unit, making it sound like this is a single unit of mercenary cavalry from Greece and elsewhere. But in fact the misthophoroi hippeis, ‘wage-bearing cavalry’ are a well-attested unit of Greek-speaking military settlers in Egypt serving as cavalry.6 Polybius’ narrative is one in which the moribund Ptolemaic army is whipped into shape but a set of mercenary Greek commanders (Polyb. 5.63.8-14), a fresh infusion of Greek martial spirit into the army and this fudge lets him make it seem that while the ‘native’ (Macedonian) Ptolemaic cavalry on the left was wholly defeated it, the battle was won by the – he will let the reader understand incorrectly, mostly mercenary – cavalry on the right, when in fact much of the cavalry on the right is also ‘native’ Greek-speaking cavalry from Egypt.

Dispositions at the Battle of Raphia; my interpretation of the Ptolemaic troops follows Johstono, op. cit.

In practice, Ptolemaic victory at Raphia seems to depend a lot more on the fact that, having at last incorporated native Egyptians into the phalanx, the Ptolemies arrive on the field with almost twice as many heavy infantry phalangites as the Seleucids, forcing Antiochus III to try to oppose the Egyptian phalanx with much lighter forces, to his misfortune.

The result of all of this is we need to be quite careful about how we define ‘mercenaries’ in ancient armies, since our sources are very slippery with their terms, sometimes willing to term any soldiers paid a wage beyond basic maintenance – even if native to the state they fight for – mercenaries. In particular, when we say mercenaries, we mean soldiers recruited from outside a given state, serving for pay. That is to say, these are not domestically recruited professional soldiers (like the legions in the Roman imperial period) or domestically recruited non-citizen auxiliaries (like the imperial Roman auxilia or Egyptians in the Ptolemaic army) or allied forces fighting in an army because their own state is a party to the conflict (like Hannibal’s Gauls or Eumenes II’s Pergamon troops at Magnesia) or vassal levies present because their own polity is subordinated to the main party in the war (like the Roman socii or Hannibal’s Iberians). All of those soldiers are notionally fighting for the state to which they belong. We want soldiers fighting purely for money, for a state to which they do not belong.

That said, there were absolutely mercenaries by this definition in service in the ancient Mediterranean, so lets talk about them!

Early Mercenaries

Our evidence for mercenaries in broader ancient Mediterranean world prior to the Classical period is quite thin, but certainly suggests – as we’d expect – that the profession is an old one, perhaps as old as the state itself. We have evidence, for instance, of foreigners on the standing royal guard of Sargon of Akkad (r. 2334-2279), including a unit of Amorites (a foreign people), which would seem to suggest the hiring of mercenaries even at this early point.7 We can’t be certain why Sargon resorted to foreign soldiers, but it may well have been the same reason that many kings through history maintained foreign, mercenary bodguards: a guard of foreign mercenaries would lack any political connections, making them notionally entirely reliant on the king for their status and thus more loyal. Likewise we have some evidence from the Old Kingdom onward of Nubians in Egyptian military service who were probably mercenaries and even a tomb inscription commemorating an Egyptian Harkhuf who brought back – among other goods – mercenaries for the Egyptian King Merenre Nemtyemsaf I (r. c. 2300) from his trade expeditions into Nubia, an early mercenary-recruiter.8

Greeks seem to have served as mercenaries across the Eastern Mediterranean from an early point as well – we have evidence for Ionian Greeks, seemingly on mercenary service, in Babylon and for Greeks in Egyptian mercenary service by the seventh century.9 We often cannot see these early mercenaries very well – their terms of service, methods of recruitment and so on are obscured to us by the limited evidence – but they serve as a useful reminder that mercenary service was not invented in the Classical period (480-323) when it becomes increasingly visible to us.

That said, I want to focus on how ancient mercenaries might function in the Classical (480-323) and Hellenistic (323-31) periods because this is where my expertise is best.

Recruiting Mercenaries

The first thing that is worth stressing here is that we shouldn’t think of the ancient Mediterranean world in either the Classical or Hellenistic periods as having something like a single linked ‘mercenary market’ that all states had access to. Instead, mercenary recruitment was generally highly localized, with each state having access to different regional ‘pools’ of manpower they could hire. This limitation is somewhat obscured by the tendency both in our sources and in modern scholarship to focus on Greek mercenaries, which can be somewhat deceptive simply because the Aegean ‘mercenary market’ was the one that almost every central or eastern Mediterranean state had some access to. But this is just a complicated way of saying that the states which had contact with Greece (and thus are of concern to our Greek sources) had contact with Greece (and were thus able to contract mercenaries there).

There is a tendency in the popular imagination to image mercenaries functioning as an entirely separate ‘pool’ of manpower from ‘regular armies.’ That is how they function in most strategy games, for instance. But in practice, of course, the supply of men in any of these societies able to equip themselves to fight – something that demanded either a degree of wealth or social standing – was always limited. A ruler recruiting mercenaries was thus reaching into the ‘manpower pool’ of other polities, sometimes in similar ways to how those polities would themselves have recruited their residents. So the question here is essentially how does a leader gain access to the military manpower supply of a foreign polity?

In practice there were two main methods. The first and easiest was through diplomacy: a ruler might, because they already had an existing diplomatic relationship with another power, be able to negotiate access to the military population (however composed socially and economically) that their friendly neighbor controlled. For most of the Classical period in particular, friendship with Sparta acted as the key that unlocked access to Greek mercenaries from the Peloponnese – with various Mediterranean powers being relatively eager to hire Greek mercenaries presumably because the Greek style of heavy infantry combat had proved quite effective during the Greco-Persian Wars (492-478).

Thus for instance in 380, when both Egypt (under the Pharoah Hakor (r. 392-379)) – having revolted from Persian control in 404 – and the Persians were seeking Greek mercenaries, they both courted Athens for access to them: the Egyptians reached out to the Athenian general Chabrias to command a force for them and the Persians responded by sending envoys encouraging the Athenians to recall Chabrias and instead send the general Iphicrates to put together a force for them (Diod. Sic. 15.29.1-4). Likewise, when the Egyptian king – Egypt having revolted from Persian control in 404 – Nectanebo I (r. 379-360) wanted to raise a force of Greek mercenaries in c. 361 he did so directly through one of the Spartan kings, Agesilaus II (Xen. Ages. 2.28-31). This was hardly only a game for non-Greeks: Dionysius I, Tyrant of Syracuse (r. 406-367) used his friendly relationship with Sparta to enlist substantial numbers of mercenaries from the Greek mainland to supplement his Sicilian-Greek army (Diod. Sic. 14.44.2).

The above, of course, is hardly an exhaustive list. That said, as you might imagine, it is often really tricky to separate this kind of mercenary recruitment – where the mercenaries are sometimes coming under the leadership of a ‘mercenary captain’ who is also a political leader in another state – from allied or vassal forces. I keep saying we need to discuss the Carthaginian army another time (we will, I promise), but Carthage recruits this way all the time, with Carthaginian generals maintaining friendly relationships with Numidian princes or Iberian warlords who they can then call upon for soldiers – the line between a mercenary force, an allied force or a vassal force gets extraordinarily blurry in these sort of situations. You have some clear examples of mercenaries drawn up this way – the 4,000 Celtiberians raised by Hasdrubal Gisco, for instance are clearly external mercenaries (Polyb. 1.67.7), the Celtiberian Meseta being outside of Carthage’s political control – but other examples, like the 2,000 Numidians Hamilcar Barca gets in exchange for a pledge to marry his daughter to the Numidian prince Naravas seem to be more allies-and-vassals than mercenaries (Polyb. 1.78.1-9).

Those lines can even blur over time: early on Carthage is sending ambassadors to Spain to negotiate for mercenaries using trade goods (Diod. Sic. 13.44.6, 13.80.2) in what is clearly the sort of mercenaries-recruited-through-diplomacy relationship, which appears to be how Carthage recruits Iberians at least through 241 (Polyb. 1.66-7). But then of course the Barcids go and conquer the place and so post-237 the Iberians we see in Carthage’s army – probably the largest single manpower source in the Second Punic War (218-201) – are not external mercenaries but rather internal vassal levies, raised by local warlords who have been subjugated by the Barcids.

Again, I promise we’ll talk about Carthage’s military machine in detail. Later.

For leaders who could not take the expedient of recruiting mercenaries directly through the state apparatus like this, the alternate method was to recruit mercenaries through the dispatch of a ‘mercenary captain,’ though I should be clear that ‘mercenary captain’ was not generally a specialized career – these tended to be exactly the same sort of men who might hold high office (like that of general) in a Greek polis or be major elites with retinues in a non-state polity. Often these particular men might be politically on the outs, in exile, or in similar conditions – which would put them in the court of a foreign leader who might trust them and want the use of their talents – but of course they retained the kind of experience, influence and connections to put out the call for fighting men in a given region or within a given polity.

The classic example of this sort of recruitment, rendered unusually visible to us by Xenophon’s report of it, was the recruitment of the 10,000 by Cyrus the Younger for his attempt on the throne of Persia in 401. Cyrus recruited his mercenary force in a number of separate detachments to conceal his preparations for civil war. His own territory – he was satrap in Asia Minor – included the poleis of Ionia, where he recruited domestically (Xen. Anab. 1.1.6), but to supplement this Cyrus used his connections to employ a number of prominent Greeks as mercenary recruiters and captains. He sends Clearchus, a Spartan exile into Greece with a large sum of money to recruit troops (feigning that they were for a war in Thrace, Xen. Anab. 1.1.9) in the Chersonese (but probably drawing primarily Peloponnesians). To Thessaly, he sent Aristippus, a Thessalian in political difficulties to recruit there (Xen. Anab. 1.1.10); to Boeotia a Boeotian named Proxenus and in Achaea two Achaeans named Symphalian and Socrates (Xen. Anab. 1.1.11). Again, what we’re told about these fellows implies they were all men of local political significance, who had become friends (read: political allies) of Cyrus and so by giving them access to his money Cyrus could use them to access the manpower pool of Greece.

The system of recruitment doesn’t really change all that much for mercenary recruitment outside of Greece or later in the Hellenistic period.10 As Griffith notes, for the major Hellenistic powers, access to Greek manpower was an important strategic consideration and so the relations of these Macedonian dynasts with friendly Greek cities often included promises to allow free transit for mercenary recruiters (ξενόλογοι) in their territory and to bar the same from the king’s enemies. Equally, we regularly see the appearance of men who – although we do not get the detail Xenophon gives us for the early leaders of the 10,000 – appear to be the same sort of mercenary recruiters discussed above. Thus for instance we get the roster of mercenary captains involved in preparing the Ptolemaic army for Raphia: Echecrates from Thessaly, Phoxidas of Melita, Eurylochus the Magnesian, Socrates the Boeotian and Cnopias of Allaria (Polyb. 5.63.11-12). In 203, Ptolemy V’s court dispatches an Aetolian mercenary captain, Scopas, to his native country in an effort to recruit more Greeks (Polyb. 15.25.16).

Sources of Mercenaries

Given those two primary means of getting access to sources of men willing to fight for pay – either using diplomatic channels to gain access or employing a local notable who already has access – it is now not hard to see why each state or leader is going to have access to different ‘pools’ of mercenaries, based on who is in their court available and sufficiently trustworthy to be tasked to do mercenary recruiting or on what diplomatic arrangements they have. On the latter point, while in some cases these diplomatic arrangements are essentially between states and basically treaty arrangements, you will note above in many cases they are fundamentally personal in nature: not just ‘is your state friendly with Sparta’ but ‘do you, personally, have a relationship with, or a way to contact a key leader like Agesilaus II personally to have him broker the arrangement.

That said in the Hellenistic Mediterranean there are so very ‘standard’ sources of mercenaries we see show up frequently in a lot of armies. The most obvious and persistent one is Greeks, particularly Greeks from the Aegean – that is, mainland Greece, the Aegean Islands and Ionia. Alexander the Great’s conquests and the states that his empire fragmented into meant that effectively every major Eastern Mediterranean power was Greek-speaking with substantial cultural and personal ties in Greece. Because these kingdoms relied substantially on a ruling class made up to at least some degree (primarily made up in the case of the two largest, Ptolemic Egypt and the Seleucid Kingdom) by Greek military settlers meant that they had a rapacious demand for these fellows. But at the same time, for states whose capitals (Alexandria, Seleucia-on-the-Tigris and the Syrian tetrapolis (which included Seleucia Pieria and Antioch)) were new, large Greek-speaking urban foundations with a river of royal money flowing through them, it meant that any Hellenistic ruler had an ample supply of the sort of fellows who could be sent with a bunch of cash (or promises of cash) to Greece to put out the call to enlist men.

Indeed, if you were such a fellow from Greece – a politically important exile or an experienced military commander on the outs – the obvious place to go was one of the Hellenistic capitals, whose kings could pay you lavishly for your abilities and connections.

Via Livius.org, the probably misnamed Funerary stele of Salmamodes, more correctly the stele of Salmas, son of Moles (c. 2nd cent. BC). He names himself (as the inscription has been reconstructed) as from Adada, a Pisidian town in Anatolia, so while his epitaph is in Greek, he is not culturally Greek (Pisidia is Hellenizing, but not Hellenic, in this period). Yet he is dressed as a standard, recognizable kind of mercenary soldier in this period, the thureophoros thorakites, who evidently died in Seleucid service in Sidon in the Levant.

The odd result of this persistent demand for Greek mercenaries was the very brief emergence of a fixed ‘clearing house’ of sorts for Greek mercenaries in the fourth century: Taenarum (modern Cape Matapan, on the very southern tip of the Peloponnese). I find that interested students of antiquity often assume, encountering Taenarum in this function, that it must have been one of many such ‘mercenary marketplaces’ but in fact it really does seem to be the only spot quite like it. It was hardly the only place to recruit mercenaries, but it is the only place where it seems like large numbers of prospective mercenaries simply hung out, waiting to be recruited. It seems to have filled this role from at least the 320s onward (see Diod. Sic. 17.108.7, 17.111.1). That said, Taenarum itself seems to have faded in importance and we get no references to it continuing as a mercenary rallying point in the third century, nor does any other place take up its role. Instead, the recruitment of Greeks largely continues along the lines above: through diplomacy or recruiting captains.

A notable sub-component of Greek mercenaries were units of ‘Cretan’ or ‘Neo-Cretan’ troops. These seem invariably to be archer mercenaries, although it is not always clear if ‘Creten’ here signifies them being from Crete or trained to fight in the Cretan manner. Nevertheless such soldiers show up with regularity in the armies of Alexander, the Antigonids, the Ptolmies, the Seleucids and the states of Greece proper, inter alia. This is one thing that is tricky in assessing mercenary units: they’re almost always described with an ethnic marker, but it is sometimes unclear if this indicates where the men are from, or how they fight or both.

The nature of polis armies clearly has something to do with why the Greek world seems to produce mercenaries, perhaps rather more than we might expect. These states, after all, maintain citizen militia forces with both heavy infantry hoplites (much in demand) and lighter infantry troops (peltasts in the Classical period, thureophoroi in the Hellenistic). Since these fellows all self-equip, that means in peacetime there is no shortage of men with the necessary equipment and experience to fill these battlefield roles who might – either out of a desire for adventure or the need for the money – be tempted into mercenary service. The turmoil of polis politics must also have often thrown off these men when they found themselves on the wrong side of a political restructuring in their community – and of course it will also have produced no shortage of exiled or politically unpopular generals and captains to organize them.

We shouldn’t overstate their numbers: Greece was not awash with tens of thousands of mercenaries. It is striking that when Cyrus the Younger essentially attempts to recruit everyone he can in 401, he ends up with 10,000 of them. For the Battle of Raphia (217), when Antiochus III, the Seleucid King, and Ptolemy IV (of Egypt) essentially both try to recruit everyone they can get their hands on, the Seleucids have 5,000 Greek mercenaries and another 1,000 Cretans and the Ptolemies have around 8,000 Greek mercenaries and another 1,000-3,000 Cretans and Neo-Cretans (some number of whom may be settlers) for a total of something like maybe 3,000 or so Cretans and 13,000 Greek mercenaries available. So we might say something to the effect that after 40411 or so, there were around 10,000 to 15,000 or so mercenaries available to be had in the Greek world. Obviously not a small number, but also not a number so large that one could predicate an entire major army on them (but plenty for a small polis to figure they could get away with a mostly mercenary army and spare the rich citizens the annoyance of hoplite service, as some seem to have done).

Another key source of mercenaries were non-state or early/weak-state peoples caught in the orbit of these large kingdoms. We’ve talked about how ‘tribal’ polities – which sometimes consolidated into weak kingdoms (e.g. Odrysian Thrace) – recruit internally through the networks of individual powerful aristocrats (with their retinues). That volatile mixture means these societies have a bunch of local notables who could potentially raise a significant amount of military force for a private agenda, whose power and influence is in part based on their ability to demonstrate martial valor. At the same time, those men also have sons, the ‘youths’ in our sources who also have a social need to demonstrate military virtue and who might get more than a bit ‘antsy’ if there is no conflict at present in which to do so.

Meanwhile neighboring states have access to cash (that is, actual coined money) and prestige goods that these non-state/weak-state societies – with less economic specialization – often do not produce. Those prestige goods are quite valuable for aristocrats (and their sons) in the non-state societies because they can use them to demonstrate their own wealth and connections or as valuable gifts to retainers. The potential for a state to leverage that to recruit these aristocrats – with their retinues – as mercenaries are fairly obvious and through this interaction mercenaries from these societies become a standard feature of Mediterranean armies in the Hellenistic period.

Carthage, of course, has the most notable reputation for this kind of recruitment, recruiting substantial numbers of Iberians and Gauls this way, before Barcid expansion in Spain and Hannibal’s invasion of Italy fundamentally change those relationships into a non-mercenary character (Diod. Sic. 13.44, 13.80; Polyb. 1.17.4, 1.67.7). As an aside because this fits nowhere else, Carthage also seems to have been able to access at least some sources of Greek mercenaries, but one gets the sense these were never a major part of their manpower pool.

Via Livius.org, another funerary stele from Sidon, this of a Dioscurides, evidently a thureophoros and – like Salmas above, a Pisidian in Seleucid service.

The three major Hellenistic powers utilized these sources as well, with the most consistent non-state/weak-state mercenary draws being Gauls and Thracians. The Seleucids also regularly employed Gallic mercenaries, but whereas Carthage’s Gauls were drawn from what today would by southern France and northern Italy, the Seleucid supply came from the Galatians, a Gallic people who had migrated from the lower Danube through Greece (quite violently) before settling in central Anatolia; some 3,000 infantry and 2,500 cavalry of this sort are part of the Seleucid array at Magnesia. The Ptolemies, able in the third century to project substantial naval power of the Eastern Mediterranean, also employed smaller numbers of Gallic and Thracian mercenaries, which show up at the only Ptolemaic order of battle we have, the one for Raphia. The Antigonids, controlling the Macedonian heartland – which is next to Thrace and Gallic peoples in the Danube River Basin – also employed substantial numbers of these as mercenaries. Perseus (r. 179-168) when he brought his whole army together for review, had 2,000 Gauls and 3,000 ‘free’ Thracians (along with 2,000 allied Thracians from the Odrysian Kingdom) in his army, alongside 3,000 Cretan mercenaries and around 1,000 Greeks from various places.12

Map made and kindly supplied by Michael Taylor from “A Commander Will Put an End to his Insolence: the Battle of Magnesia, 190BC” in The Seleucids at War: Recruitment, Organization and Battles (2024), eds. Altay Coşkun and Benhamin E. Scolnic.
You can see the Galatian infantry on either side of the phalanx and the Galatian cavalry on the left.

Other sources of mercenaries appear only briefly in our sources rather than showing up consistently. The Seleucid King Demetrios I recruited Jewish mercenaries (I. Macc. 10.36). The Seleucids also employed a substantial number of troops from areas around the edges of their empire – Dahae, Thallians, Carians, Cilicians – who might be mercenaries but in many cases might equally by subjects or vassals (Livy 37.40). The Mamertines, who will end up starting the First Punic War were a body of Campanian mercenaries who were hired by Agathocles, tyrant of Syracuse (r. 317 – 289) and afterwords set themselves up as the rulers of Messina in Sicily.

That said, Italy is notable by how it doesn’t throw off large numbers of mercenaries (neither does Carthaginian North Africa, once we cut through Polybius’ fudging). The Carthaginians employ some mercenaries (but again, fewer than generally supposed), but they do not seem to allow anyone else to really hire from their own recruiting pools, while the Romans largely do not employ any meaningful number of mercenaries and also appear to keep their military resources locked up. The fact that the Roman Republic is essentially a non-actor in the mercenary market – neither a supplier nor a consumer – is remarkably striking, though it makes a degree of sense when you remember that the Roman military-economic machine generated soldiers in tremendous quantity (with their equipment) but relatively little hard cash. Why pay for the one thing you have in abundance? The more curious question is why no one else tries (or succeeds?) to hire Romans. In any case, Rome and Carthage both seem notably not to generate the sort of ‘floating supply’ of mercenary military men that Greece does.

Terms of Service

We can conclude very briefly with a sense of how mercenaries might serve and be paid.

For the most part, when we hear about mercenaries, they are being raised for specific campaigns, but every so often we get hints of standing bodies of mercenary troops as well. I’ve already mentioned mercenary royal guards, but we also see mercenaries serving as effectively garrison forces for states they did not want to keep their citizen-militia or military-settler population (raised for major campaigns) ‘in rotation’ in peacetime. The Ptolemies seem to have maintained substantial garrisons this way – we’re told in preparation for the Battle of Raphia that the advisors of Ptolemy IV put together a force of some eight thousand mercenaries which seem to mostly have been drawn from garrison duty, particularly in Ptolemaic overseas holdings (Polyb. 5.65.4). Interestingly, we also see the Greek poleis, still fighting their smaller wars in the shadows of Hellenistic giants, sometimes raising small standing units of paid citizen soldiers and they sometimes employed mercenaries (Athens quite frequently), but the impression, sometimes given in the older scholarship that the Hellenistic period was an age of Greek warfare-by-condottieri is overblown: citizen soldiers remained the mainstay of polis forces.13

Mercenaries seem generally to have served in defined units under the captains who recruited them. In our sources, these units generally show up with ethnic signifiers, which often indicate both where mercenaries were from and also how they fought. Mercenaries were expected to provide their own equipment for a specific style of fighting, which naturally restricted who could be a mercenary. If you wanted to be a hoplite mercenary, you needed to have hoplite equipment! However this meant mercenary forces could be a way for a state to ‘buy’ a kind of warfare it could not produce effectively itself, with the most obvious example – but hardly the only one- being the Persian appetite for Greek heavy infantry.

The precise terms of payment varied and were often negotiated and sometimes renegotiated as campaigns wore on. Unfortunately, we cannot see the payment terms of basically any non-Greek mercenaries clearly, so we’re largely in the dark about how Iberian, Thracian, Gallic, etc. mercenaries were paid. Diodorus’ indication that Carthaginian mercenary recruiters went to Spain μετὰ πολλῶν χρημάτων, “with lots of stuff” is frustrating in its vagueness, since χρήματα could equally be trade goods or actual coined money (Diod. Sic. 13.44.6). What is, I think, fairly clear is that Carthage is not – pace Hoyos – paying their mercenaries nearly as much or in the same way as the Hellenistic states of the East, if for no other reason than their budget probably could not support it.14

By contrast, we can see the arrangements for the pay of Greek mercenaries fairly well. Compensation, while subject to negotiation generally came in two components: what we might term ‘maintenance’ (σίτος, ‘bread [money]’ in the Classical period, σιτώνιον or σιταρχία sometimes in Hellenistic sources, with the same meaning), essentially an allowance for the soldier to survive, and the actual wages for labor (μισθός, ‘wages’ or ὀψώνιον, ”relish [money] ‘salary,’ literally ‘relish money,’ from ὄψον, ‘relish, delicacies, sauces’ – anything used to go with bread to make a tasty meal – making ὀψώνιον wonderfully evocative phrase, essentially ‘pay for the nicer things in life’).

Via Wikipedia, the Nile Mosiac of Palestrina, showing in this portion a group of late Hellenistic soldiers, some of whom are doubtless mercenaries. A necessary caution when using this mosaic: the original mosaic is likely a c. 100 BC copy of a c. 165 BC original, however the mosaic was moved in the 1600s (AD) and repeatedly repaired and/or reconstructed, so you want to be very careful making any strong judgements about military equipment from the mosaic as it survives, because you may just be focusing on what a 17th century restorer thought might go into a blank spot.

Naturally, the maintenance pay had to be handled at least a little bit in advance and had to be doled out to any kind of soldier in installments as their service progressed. Any kind of wage payment in our sources is almost always expressed as a daily sum, but mercenaries probably did not receive their σιτώνιον on a daily basis but probably in larger pay periods. These expenses could, of course, be handled in two ways: mercenaries might receive an allowance with which to buy rations from local markets (in cash this is the narrow meaning of σιτώνιον) or, of course, they might be issued rations and other basic supplies, which goes by the term σιτομετρία (literally ‘measured bread’ but really ‘rations’).

By contrast Greek and Macedonian soldiers expected wages – the μισθός – to be paid in cash, specifically in silver.15 Whereas maintenance pay came in advance (albeit sometimes in installments), μισθός came at the end – either of a pay-period or a campaign. The ideal way to handle wage expenses was to keep them ‘on the books:’ soldiers were issued their maintenance pay at regular intervals but merely had their actual wages credited to their account – the idea being that soldiers would then be ‘cashed out’ at the end of the campaign. That freed the army (and the soldiers) from the requirements to carry huge amounts of minted silver coinage with them wherever they went…but of course also gave the employer all sorts of cheeky opportunities to withhold or delay payment. Generals might often promise to find the money for wages from the loot and spoils of a successful campaign (e.g. the Spartan Teleutias, Xen. Hell. 5.1.14-18); this worked fantastically well if you fought for Alexander the Great and perhaps less so if you fought for basically anyone else.

We can see the obvious catch that system creates in the start of Carthage’s Mercenary War (241-237; Polyb. 1.66-72). Under the terms of the peace at the end of the First Punic War (264-241), Carthage had withdrawn its army from Sicily and brought it back to North Africa, but Carthage was financially exhausted by the war and caught in a bind: the campaign being over, it now had to settle the arrears of the men’s pay. Those arrears were considerable – this had been a really long war – and Carthage simply didn’t have the money. The Carthaginians initially are able to kick the can down the road by scraping together money for the maintenance pay – they can scrape together the σιτώνιον – but absent the ability to pay the arrears of μισθός, the army – both mercenaries and also regular North African soldiers (who made up the bulk of the force, but were paid a wage as well) – mutinied and then backed a revolt of Carthage’s subject communities in North Africa, which was eventually put down by Hamilcar Barca.16

For a mercenary employer who found himself unable to pay out the silver demanded by his mercenaries, the normal result was either mutiny or the mercenary unit melting away. However for larger states, there was an alternative to pay in something other than silver the soldiers would accept and here the obvious candidate was land. This certainly seems to be a significant part of what is happening with Hellenistic military settlements: Greek and Macedonian soldiers, serving in East (where Macedonian dynasts have land and peasants in abundance) are being paid at the end of their service in part by lavish plots of land (often large enough to live as rentier elites, rather than as farmers!) presumably in lieu of hard cash the king might not be prepared to spend. And as an added bonus the land both sustains the former-mercenary-now-settler’s household in perpetuity and at the same time renders him (and his descendants) liable for future military service. That said, such settlements could run into problems: recall that many of Alexander the Great’s less-than-fully-willing military settlers revolted when he died, seeking to just go home (Diod. Sic. 18.7.1).

We have a few examples of attested pay rates, invariably for Greek or Macedonian soldiers. While maintenance was often handled in kind, the standard rate of μισθός for military service is almost invariably a drachma (=six obols) a day, which as we’ve noted before was a good wage – a bit above typical – for a day’s work. The evidence for maintenance pay as a money-amount is exceedingly tricky (epigraphic and papyrus evidence that often comes with interpretive problems) but 2-3 obols per day seems to be the ‘cash value’ of a mercenary’s maintenance, making a Greek or Macedonian mercenary’s ‘gross pay’ around 8 or 9 obols per day. That was also, coincidentally, seems to be about what the Seleucid and Ptolemaic kingdoms – competing for the scarce supply of ethnically Greek and Macedonian manpower – seem to have paid their domestic Greek and Macedonian (but not native) soldiers (once you adjust for the lighter Ptolemaic currency standard). By contrast, the Antigonids and Romans, conscripting their own peasants, seem to have paid them 4 and 2 obols (=3 Roman asses) per day, respectively.

If you are wondering why the Seleucids and Ptolemies are ‘overpaying’ so badly for their military manpower…questions answered in my book project! Which I promise will, at some point, actually come out! Doubtless it will arrive at roughly the same time your mercenary pay arrears are cashed out.

No one is getting rich on a drachma a day (plus maintenance), but on the flipside a mercenary serving on a campaign or garrison deployment already had their expenses covered and might get to the end with some loot and – once they were ‘cashed out’ – a chunky pile of very spendable silver. For substantially unmonetized17 non-state peoples, this might be one of the few ways to get a chunk of cash, which in turn could be a significant status marker and provide economic and social opportunities otherwise unavailable at home. Assuming your employer actually paid your wages, this was not a bad economic bargain.

The rise of Rome brought a slow but steady end to this system, because the Romans largely didn’t use it and in any case steadily extinguished all of the other states that did. While it is common to see the armies of the Late Roman Republic or early Imperial period also termed ‘mercenary armies,’ that is really a misnomer. The armies of the Late Roman Republic were still mostly citizen-soldier armies, while the army Augustus and Tiberius created was a long-service professional standing army recruited from citizens and subjects of Rome, not a mercenary force. It is striking that the braggart mercenary soldier – a staple stock character of Hellenistic comedy – appears in Roman comedy in Plautus’ Miles Gloriosus (set in Ephesus in the Greek world), written in the late third century BC as the Romans are beginning to expand beyond Italy in a two-century run of conquest that will render the braggart mercenary himself a thing of the past.

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Posted by Bret Devereaux

This week, continuing in the vein of some of our previous strategy and military theory primers, I wanted to off a basic 101-level survey of the strategic theory behind efforts, in a sense, directed against the state itself, both violent approaches (what we might call ‘terroristic insurgency’)18 and non-violent approaches (protest). It may seem strange to treat violent insurgency and non-violent protest together but while they employ very different methods, as we’ll see, they share a similar theoretical framework, attempting to achieve some of the similar effects by different means, both working within the state, against the state (or its policies), focused on the changing minds rather than battlefields.

Naturally this comes in part in response to the significant amounts of protest actions happening right now in the United States, but the framework here is very much intended to be a general one, applicable to both armed insurgencies and non-violent protests worldwide. The world, after all, is really quite big and there are multiple major protest movements and multiple armed insurgencies happening globally at any given time. That said, much as with protracted war, a movement aiming to push against the state is naturally going to be heavily shaped by local conditions, particularly by the nature of the state against which it sets itself as well as the condition and political alignment of its people.

Finally, I want to clarify how I am using terminology here at the outset. I have mostly stuck here to ‘insurgent’ to describe violent actors opposing the state and ‘protestor’ to describe non-violent ones. Obviously in mass movements, violence is not a binary but a spectrum – a single fellow kicking over a trash can does not turn a non-violent march into a riot, but equally having a ‘political wing’ does not turn an organization mounting a terror campaign ‘non-violent.’ However the strategic dichotomy is going to be useful to understanding how these groups in their ideal form tackle problems. Likewise, I am going to describe the violent movements opposing the state as ‘insurgencies’ but I want to note at the outset that I am drawing a distinction here between what I am defining as ‘insurgencies’ which lack the backing of a conventional army or the expectation of soon acquiring one, as opposed to forces in a protracted war framework who have or expect to have the backing of a conventional force, however weak (we might call the latter group guerillas, although this too is imprecise). The line between these two strategies is certainly fuzzy – many insurgencies hope to eventually transition to protracted war and the two approaches share many tactics – but there are worthwhile differences between the two.

In particular, whereas the guerilla’s cause is supported by a conventional army – even if it is in hiding – and anticipates a shift to positional, conventional warfare and thus eventual victory on the battlefield (however distance), the insurgent has no expectation of developing a conventional force capable of meeting his opponent any time soon and is instead wholly focused on the ‘war in the mind,’ often through the use of terror tactics. That said, I mostly avoid ‘terrorist’ here as well, in an effort to avoid the ‘our freedom fighter is their terrorist’ problem of morally loaded language in order to focus on tactics and strategic effects, rather than the rightness or wrongness of the cause. And I should be clear here, what follows – despite being almost 11,000 words long – is very much a schematic overview into which a great amount of detail and nuance could (and probably ought) to be added, still I think the theory foundation here might be useful.

At the end, once we have our theory out, I am going to make a few observations about the current immigration policy anti-ICE protests in the United States generally and in Minneapolis-Saint Paul in particular and how I think they fit in to this framework.

(Bibliography Note: The difficulty in writing this kind of a framework is that much of what is written in terrorism and insurgency is written primarily from the counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency (COIN) perspective. Nevertheless, to the degree these works understand their enemies, they are useful. The standard teaching works for understanding counter-insurgency warfare are typically campaign histories of successful and failed COIN operations, such as J.A. Nagl, Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam (2005); note also older and influential efforts such as B.B. Fall, Street Without Joy: The French Debacle in Indochina (1961), D. Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (1964) and A. Horne, A Savage War of Peace: Algeria 1954-1962 (1977) . The United States military’s understanding of these lessons is distilled in a field manual, FM 3-24, albeit hardly one without criticisms. For the references here to the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan (2001-2021), many of my observations are drawn specifically from W. Morgan, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley (2021), which I cannot recommend strongly enough. Though it is hardly a perfect book, I also reference here Max Boot, Invisible Armies (2013) specifically for its discussion of the failure rate of insurgencies. In terms of framing these campaign histories, I lean here quite hard on the framework used by W.E. Lee in Waging War (2015) which was the textbook I taught this topic from when I taught a global survey of warfare. On the strategy of non-violence, what I would without question recommend first is T.E. Ricks, Waging a Good War: A Military History of the Civil Rights Movement 1954-1968 (2022). Also note the strategic thinking of non-violent leaders; Martin Luther King Jr.’s Letter from a Birmingham Jail (1963) is a remarkably cogent and clear explication of non-violence as a strategy in both its goals and how it was specifically framed for one such campaign. I am not an expert on Gandhi’s writings – which are voluminous – but I did read through the selections in Gandhi on Non-Violence, ed. T. Merton (1964). I am sure a scholar of his writings could do far better; I feel my insufficiency on this topic keenly. Finally, in terms of theory, this post uses as its theoretical foundation a mix of Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Krieg (1832) – I generally use the Howard and Paret translation, though no translation is perfect – and Hannah Arendt’s On Violence (1970).)

(Header image: from left to right, all via Wikipedia: Taliban fighters in 2021, a car-bombing in Iraq in 2005, a non-violent student sit-in in North Carolina in 1960 and an anti-ICE protest in Minneapolis, January 2026.)

Establishing a Framework

Before we dive in to the differences between insurgencies and protest movements, we have to establish their common framework and before we do that we need to establish some terms and for that we will need to rely quite a bit on Carl von Clausewitz, so get your beer mug, wine glass or drinking horn ready.

The starting point for understanding how both insurgencies and protests work is the Clausewitzian trinity. This is, in and of itself, something of an odd statement because Clausewitz, in writing On War (1832) was not focused on either insurgencies or non-violent protest movements but rather on conventional, large-scale interstate war of the sort that he had known. But the framework he constructed to understand the nature of war is so fundamental that it applies effectively to forms of conflict beyond the kinds of war he knew and indeed beyond the activity of war to some significant degree and so it is very useful here.

Via Wikipedia, Carl von Clausewitz. For those playing the Clausewitz drinking game: prepare to get absolutely hammered.

To very briefly summarize, Clausewitz begins by noting that war, by its nature, tends to escalate infinitely, each side of a conflict applying more and more force against the other until one side ‘runs out.’ Infinite escalate is an inextricable part of war’s core nature in the ideal. The two sides to a conflict thus increasingly commit their strength until one side can escalate no further – it has no more strength to apply – and thus fails, leading the stronger party in a position to impose their will upon the weaker. But of course in the real world this infinite escalation is restrained by real world factors, which Clausewitz breaks into three. It is these three factors that restrain (or in some cases, enhance) the escalating use of force that are the Clausewitzian trinity we so often talk about. They are:

Friction, the expression of randomness and unpredictability in war, encompassing all of the sorts of things that keep a state from having its full military force where it wants them to be, when it wants them to be there, functioning as intended. Bad weather, logistics snarls, unpredictable human with their emotions, unexpected enemy action – these are all forms of friction. The management of friction – management, not elimination, because it cannot be eliminated – is in Clausewitz view the proper occupation of generals, who apply their genius (natural talent) to it. And of course some actions and methods in war are also designed to increase an enemy’s friction – think something like supply disruption.

Next is Will, sometimes also termed Passion (translating Clausewitz is fun), which is to say the dedication of the people (or at least, the militarily or politically relevant people) to a cause. Clausewitz came up during the Napoleonic Wars, an age of mass warfare, so he thinks about this in terms of mass mobilization and for this post we should too. As such, Will resides with the People and is a product of their emotions, with the willingness of the great bulk of the society to submit to the hardships of a conflict in order to carry on the cause. High amounts of Will enables more escalation because a people will sacrifice more to carry on; flagging Will equally enforces limits on escalation.

Finally there is the political object, the actual aim of the conflict, the goal each side has. A state seeking an objective that is small or trivial or optional is going to be unwilling to spend its full strength in the pursuit of that objective. By contrast, a state whose entire existence is threatened will deploy everything it possibly can. In Clausewitz’ view the political object is managed by politicians, who do (or at least ought) to govern state strategy and the willingness of the state to expend resources by calculations of pure reason.

With these three elements in mind, it becomes possible to overcome an enemy (or to be overcome) without matching their maximum possible strength ‘in the ideal.’ A weak state, for instance, might hold off a stronger one simply because the thing being contested is much more important (the political object!) to them and so they apply a greater portion of their strength. Alternately, weak public support might prevent a strong state from mobilizing its full potential force or friction – perhaps a tricky supply situation at great distance with unpredictable conditions – might prevent the full application of that larger state’s force.

These three elements of the trinity are equally variables, which either side might seek to effect: to sap enemy will so as to limit the force they can mobilize or to structure political conditions so that attacking even a weaker neighbor is simply not worth the cost. In this latter point, this is how nuclear deterrence works: it raises the cost of a conventional war well above any possible gains, so that even a stronger state would profit nothing from attacking and so does not attack.

You may now stop chugging your drink (but have some handy, we’re not done with our good friend Clausewitz just yet).

For a weaker party in a conflict, altering these variables is of course essential: if you are the weaker party then by definition you are not in a position to win the ‘ideal’ trial of strength (which to be clear, never exists in the real world; it is only an ideal construct) in any case and so must seek ways to use the elements of the trinity as ‘levers’ to constrain your opponent’s ability to employ their strength, while keeping yours unconstrained.

And at last that is the key to understanding insurgencies and protests movements, because both insurgencies and protest movements take the form they do because from a perspective of pure force, they are the weakest parties compared to the violent power of the state, whichever state they might find themselves pitted against.

Theories of Victory

Fundamentally, what protests, insurgencies and terrorism campaigns have in common is that neither operates with any hope of directly challenging the armed force of the state. You may note this is a significant contrast to the theory of protracted war: while protracted war is a strategy of the weak against the strong, it envisions a future transition to a phase (or even phases) of direct, conventional ‘positional’ warfare, once the strength of the opposing power has been sapped. A force engaged in protracted war expects to win on the battlefield eventually, just not today. By contrast, while armed insurgencies often adopt a protracted war theory and thus a notional stage where they transition to conventional warfare, they often operate much farther from making that a reality.

Now I am to a degree defining this distinction between insurgency and protracted war – many of the parties involve understand themselves to be practicing both – but I think the distinction is important. A contrast may serve. The forces of North Vietnam (and their sympathizers in the South) waged a protracted war against the United States and the U.S. supported South Vietnamese government in which they were clearly in conventional terms the weaker partner, but at all points in that conflict, North Vietnam maintained a conventional military (the People’s Army of Vietnam or PAVN) engaging in a level of conventional warfare. That included major efforts to transition to direct, positional and conventional warfare in 1964 and again in 1968 and again in 1972 (being badly hammered each time). Practitioners of protracted war – we may, for the sake of simplicity here (if at the cost of some accuracy) call them guerillas – often engage in terrorist or insurgent tactics, but their overarching strategic theory assumes an eventual transition to conventional warfare.

By way of contrasting example, the insurgencies the United States faced in Afghanistan (alongside NATO allies) and in Iraq (alongside coalition allies) never seem to have seriously contemplated engaging the United States military in a conventional battle. Not only was the balance of forces extremely unfavorable, these groups had no real plan to make it favorable. This comes into really sharp relief if you think about airpower – without which engaging in a conventional groundfight against a modern military is simply high-tech suicide. North Vietnam, equipped by its allies, operated one of the most sophisticated air defense systems in the region and regularly inflicted air-to-air loses on United States pilots; they shot down thousands of planes. By contrast, the sum total of American fixed-wing aircraft combat losses in the air in Iraq and Afghanistan 2001-2021 consisted of a single A-10A Thunderbolt II.19 Accidents and maintenance issues claimed aircraft far more often than enemy action. At no point, so far as I can tell, did Iraqi or Taliban insurgents make a serious effort to challenge American airpower because unlike the North Vietnamese, it was never required to do so for their theory of victory.

Via Wikipedia (who in turn got the screenshot from Voice of America), a group of Taliban fighters in 2021 in Kabul. You may note the lack of heavy weapons or militarized vehicles: these militants were never going to defeat the United States military in an open battle, nor did they plan to.

Fundamentally insurgencies lack access to substantial amounts of industrial firepower (typically because they have no foreign sponsor willing to hand them modern heavy weaponry; small arms are neat but to wage modern conventional warfare, you need armor, artillery and airpower) and so while they try to achieve their aims through violence, they operate with no hope of directly challenging an opposing force that does have access to industrial firepower. That demands a different approach!

There is thus, I’d argue, a real difference between a weaker force which still aims for and has a practical plan to actually defeat an enemy force – in the above example, to shoot down their planes – as opposed to an insurgency that needs an enemy it cannot defeat to give up or go away.

Of course for a non-violent protest movement, this differential in armed force becomes essentially infinite: such movements bring no armed force at all to the table. And yet non-violence has arguably a better track record than insurgency at achieving its goals. How?

Fundamentally, these groups focus almost entirely on Will. Whereas the force of modern states comes from the ability to harness industrial firepower and is thus a product of economies, the endurance of an insurgency or protest movement derives almost purely from their ability to secure new recruits faster than they are exhausted, which in turn is a product of popular support and internal morale – which is, of course, just that Clausewitzian Will in action. So long as that will remains strong, these groups will aquire new recruits faster than the state can arrest or kill them and so they will grow. And since the weapons (or ‘weapons’ in the case of protest groups) the group is using do not demand an independent industrial base – they’re available commercially for prices individuals or small groups can afford, legally or otherwise – there is no industrial base, no core territory full of factories or warehouses to attack. So long as will remains, the group remains and can continue to advance their agenda.

Which would not add up to very much if insurgent or protest groups had no hope of actually achieving their aims – indeed, it would be very hard to sustain their own Will if that were the case – but of course these groups often succeed. The answer relies on understanding the Clausewitzian trinity as a tool (drink!): if the insurgency or protest movement cannot escalate to match the force of the state, it must use the levers the trinity provides to de-escalate the force of the state. In part this is done through the political object – by raising the cost of denying the insurgency or protest group’s demands until it the rational calculus is simply to give them what they want. That in turn is generally accomplished through degrading popular will, until the costs to the opposing state – in public support, in votes, in public compliance – either lead to capitulation to some or all of the demands or to regime collapse.

Both protests and insurgencies function this way, where the true battlefield is the will of the participants, rather than contesting control over physical space. That’s a tricky thing, however, for humans to wrap our heads around. We have, after all, spent many thousands of years – arguably the whole of our history and pre-history, largely fighting battles over territory. Our emotions are tuned for those kinds of fights and so our instinct is to revert to that style of fighting. One can see this very clearly in young or undisciplined protestors who imagine they will ‘win’ the protest by forcing back a police line, essentially ‘battling’ the cops. But protest groups do not ‘win’ by beating the police into submission and indeed even armed insurgencies generally do not win by victories in open fights.

In both cases, these movements win by preserving (or fostering) their own will to fight, while degrading the enemy’s will to fight.

Of course they use very different tactics to achieve that same goal.

The Tactics of Insurgency

Of course to begin with, as a product of the definitions we’re working with here, insurgents and terrorists use violent means to achieve their ends. But whereas one conventional army engages another with the intent of destroying it, we might say that the insurgent or terrorist instead engages in violence with the intent to communicate a message.

That is going to seem like a very odd statement, so let me explain.

The strategic effect the insurgent aims to achieve is not located in his target. Remember, we’re talking about violent movements that have no real hope in the foreseeable future of actually destroying the armed forces of their enemy, so while they may spend a lot of time blowing things up, they cannot win purely by blowing things up. Instead, they seek to persuade key audiences by violence as an alternative to the destruction of the enemy (of which they are incapable). So they stage attacks, destroying targets, to communicate their message to persuade those audiences. The precise framing of the messages may vary, but (and here I am following Lee, op. cit.), there is a standard set of audiences and messages the group wants to convey:

  • To its own members, the insurgency needs to communicate that the group is active and making progress in order to sustain its own will. Inflicting casualties – often in spectacular, filmed and documented fashion – on real or perceived enemies can accomplish this, hardening the group member’s resolve to continue (and to sustain casualties).
  • To potential members, the insurgency needs to communicate this same effectiveness, because it will take substantially losses, often much higher losses than the enemy. As a result, it needs a steady stream of young, angry and motivated recruits. The very inexhaustible nature of its recruitment is a key element of messaging to enemies (see below).
  • To potential supporters of the enemy (which might be locals collaborating with an occupation government or civilians acting in support of a regime) the insurgency needs to communicate that it can inflict violence on enemy supporters and also that it will inevitably win. Essentially the message being communicated is, “if you support our enemies, we will eventually win and then kill you and your family.” The aim is to terrify opponents into passive acceptance of the insurgency, rather than active opposition.
  • To the enemy itself, the insurgency aims to communicate its continued existence and ability to extract continued costs. The message is, in effect, ‘give up, we’re not going away.’ That message can be directed at leaders, but equally at rank and file members of the opposition, encouraging them to ‘melt away’ rather than endure year after year after year of fear and hardship combating the insurgency.

There is, it must be noted, a distinction here between two kinds of terror or insurgency aims: those that target primarily their own (independent) state and those attempting to expel the forces of another state (some kind of occupation or imperial government). In the former case, where the enemy leadership has nowhere else to go, the sense of inevitability the insurgency has to build is considerable in order to get supporters of the regime to abandon it completely, whereas by contrast encouraging an occupying force to leave is far easier: only the high cost and intractability of the insurgency – its inability to be destroyed rather than the inevitability of its success – may be required to make a foreign power decide that occupation is simply no longer worth it. Unsurprisingly, then, insurgency campaigns have significantly higher success rates against foreign occupying forces or foreign-supported occupation governments (and indeed, as Max Boot, op. cit. notes, the success rates for insurgencies generally and against independent indigenous governments specifically is abysmal; insurgents usually lose).

It may be easier to understand these strategic aims in the context of the concrete actions insurgents take to further them. The Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2021 can serve as a ‘model’ for how many of these functions work. By 2002, there was little question of the Taliban directly opposing the military forces of the United States and its coalition partners: they had been roundly and comprehensively defeated, pushed into small cells or mountain hideouts, with no conventional military force to speak of.

The most visible actions by the insurgency are what we might term ‘spectacular attacks’ – spectacular in every sense of the word because these are spectacles intended for spectators. This is the propaganda of the deed, the defining feature of terrorism, where through an act of spectacular violence, often (but not always) against civilians, a group aims to garner attention and support for its core message. In the context of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the 2009 car bombing of the NATO HQ in Afghanistan serves as an example, as did the release of video of the captured Bowe Bergdahl the same year (of course the 9/11 attacks that started the conflict are also an example), alongside many others. Sometimes these attacks are focused on military targets, but as frequently not – what we are focused on here is that the attack’s primary role is messaging rather than direct military utility. What we need to understand about these attacks is that they are not expected to bring about military victory directly: they do not seriously endanger the military force of the insurgent’s opponent. Instead, they are exercises in messaging, which is why their spectacular nature is important, indeed central: they are intended to get news coverage, to be discussed and talked about and thus create a platform for the insurgent to spread his message: to supporters that the insurgency still exists and is ‘making progress’ and inflicting pain on the enemy (and thus worthy of support) and to the opposing force that the insurgency still exists and is capable of inflicting costs (and thus, perhaps you should just go away and give them what they want).

But while foreign media coverage often focuses on these larger spectacular attacks – they are designed to attract such coverage – insurgents are often doing a lot more less well-covered things. Core to the Taliban’s success was not attacks on United States forces but assassinations and a campaign of terror among Afghans who might support or collaborate with United States forces. The messaging in this case was very deliberate: that at some point the Americans would leave and the Taliban would remain at which point those who continued to work with the United States or the Afghan government it had supported would be killed (frequently along with their families). Note that while this message ended up becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy in Afghanistan, that is not always true: Iraqi insurgents did the same kind of messaging, but AQI/ISIS has been very greatly reduced, while the government set up by the United States and its coalition partners in Iraq remains. Insurgents do not always succeed in their aims.

The campaign of terror, targeting local leaders and officials, police officers, and the US-friendly Afghanistan National Army, was always far more extensive in Afghanistan than direct Taliban actions against the direct American presence. Including civilian contractors, US and coalition deaths in Afghanistan numbered 7,423, but Afghan security forces suffered more than 65,000 KIA; estimates for Afghan civilian deaths at the hands of the Taliban are fuzzy at best but well into the tens of thousands. While Taliban insurgents certainly engaged in propaganda and leveraged sympathetic local leaders and networks to build their base of support among the populace, the ‘hard edge’ of this strategy was a clear willingness to ‘make a demonstration’ of local non-sympathizer Afghans through (locally) spectacular assassinations. Once again the goal was not to kill every person who supported the U.S. backed government but to, by very visibly assassinating a few, frighten the remainder into withdrawing their support, which steadily rotted away the foundations of the Afghanistan security forces.

There is also an element of friction in this kind of insurgency: after all, the insurgent is opposed. Generally in a counter-insurgency context, the powerful conventional military is attempting to set up governance, to convert its superiority of armed force into power (in Hannah Arendt’s sense), that is the more-or-less voluntary cooperation of the local populace. Those forces are trying to set up local police forces, courts, governments, services, schools, roads and so on in order to enable a civilian administration which can organize and govern the populace.20 Even if the insurgency is not ideologically opposed to some of these administrative structures (and they often are; the Taliban was very opposed to efforts to educate women, for instance), they want to prevent or slow their emergence because effective local governing structures drain away the disorganized or supportive human terrain the insurgency needs to function. Countries with well-organized, locally supported police forces are extremely difficult terrain for any insurgency to operate in. And at the same time, once they realize they are in a counter-insurgency framework, the conventional force is likely to begin attempting to hunt insurgents, which is also something the insurgent wants to avoid.

Consequently, insurgents also engage in small-scale attacks on local security forces, with a twin purpose. On the one hand, inflicting casualties, especially on a occupying force, can serve to erode the will of the distant public (informed about these losses by their media) to continue the struggle. Such attacks thus serve as messaging to that public. They they also serve to raise friction (in the Clausewitzian sense, keep drinking) making it harder for the conventional force to leverage its superiority in firepower and materiel. The near perpetual threat of Taliban ambush in large parts of Afghanistan outside of the major cities substantially limited the mobility of coalition forces, limited their ability to patrol and provide security, to supply distant bases, or to set up and maintain services, thus slowing down and eventually reversing progress at setting up a functioning civilian administration in the countryside, which was the one thing that might have actually successfully rooted out the Taliban in the long-term (by eventually transforming a war of insurgency into simply a question of crime, controlled by police and local officials robustly supported by the local populace).

However the theory of victory is not based on friction: the insurgent can delay the conventional force, but it cannot by force stop them completely. Instead, the theory of victory is focused on will and to a lesser extent the political object. An insurgency could plausibly succeed by simply raising the cost of an operation (like an occupation) higher than anticipated gains, causing a rational political leadership to pull the plug. In practice, political leadership rarely wants to admit failure so easily and states will pursue failing strategies for a long time simply to avoid the perception of defeat. Consequently the more common mechanism for successful insurgencies is that the erosion of will, of public support, compels political authorities to accede to some or all of the demands of the insurgents. The ‘center of gravity’ – the locus of the most important strategic objective – for most insurgencies thus often becomes the political support that sustains a government, be that a body of key supporters in non-democratic regimes or the voters in democratic ones. That body of key voters or supporters, of course, is often not even located in the theater of operations at all: the Taliban ultimately won their insurgency in Afghanistan because they persuaded American voters that the war was no longer worth the cost, leading to the election of leaders promising to pull the plug on the war.

This is a remarkably slow process, eroding public will: indeed, the very apparent inexhaustibility of an insurgent force is part of its messaging, that no matter how many fighters the conventional army kills, there are always more replacements and so the violence – the costs – never stop. Meanwhile hunting down insurgent groups catches a conventional force on the ‘horns of a dilemma’. Modern conventional armies are built for tremendous destructive firepower, but the insurgents often hide among supportive (or terrorized) populations. If the conventional force does nothing, the insurgency will grow without check, but if the conventional force tries to engage the insurgents, they run the risk of producing a lot of collateral damage. For insurgent forces – who are often ideologically unconcerned with civilian casualties – this can be turned to their advantage, using the small strikes they are capable of to bait the Big Conventional Army into attempting to leverage its massive firepower, with the collateral damage that results essentially producing a ‘spectacular attack’ for the insurgents when the local civilian population is caught in the blast radius. It is striking, reading something like The Hardest Place how some of the most damaging attacks for American forces in the Pech Valley were not Taliban attacks, but American attacks attempting to hit the Taliban that, through carelessness, excessive force or simply the fog of war, caused civilian casualties that poisoned any goodwill from the local populace.

This isn’t the place to discuss counter-insurgency warfare in depth here, but this problem is why the consensus is that COIN is best done with lots of infantry providing local security and relatively little in the way of airpower (though air mobility is useful) or heavy firepower. Of course, long, infantry-heavy deployments of large numbers of soldiers are both unpopular on their own and also produce higher rates of casualties among the Big Conventional Army. That in turn can sap public will to continue – especially in the case of wars against distant, foreign insurgencies – and thus make things unpopular for politicians, which is, in part, why governments keep trying to go back to counter-insurgency-by-guided-bomb, a strategy which quite evidently does not work well in the absence of ground forces.

However anyone using terror tactics – that is, the targeting of the defenseless for the purpose of the ‘propaganda of the deed’ – of all kinds and thus terroristic-insurgents are caught on the horns of their own dilemma. Remember: the attacks they are engaged in are not sufficient in themselves to produce victory or even meaningfully advance towards it. As a raw matter of manpower and resources, the United States could have sustained the fiscal and human cost of the Afghanistan War forever. Instead, the terroristic-insurgent’s attacks only work when they impact Will (keep drinking), which means they only work when they gain a wider audience, when they gain attention. In some cases that attention is local but in many cases a broad audience of supporters (potential recruits) and opponents is intended.

To get an audience, such attacks must get coverage, they have to draw attention. And what draws attention to these attacks is their spectacular nature: that they are particularly violent, particularly gruesome, that they strike a population (civilians, women, children) normally considered exempt from violence or occur in places (cities, religious or cultural sites) understood to be outside of the war zone. But of course the more spectacular the violence the greater the possibility of a ‘backfire’ of sorts, where the very violence and barbarity that the insurgent is driving in order to get that attention to attract those recruits, to demoralize their enemies, instead convinces their opponents that the insurgency is a dire threat which must be defeated at all costs.

Many insurgencies end up gored on the horns of this dilemma, some multiple times. Indeed, this is what happened to AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq), twice. In 2005, AQI violence alienated key tribal leaders in Iraq’s Al Anbar governate, leading to the ‘Anbar Awakening’ where some of those key leaders forged alliances with local coalition forces: shorn of local support and thus the ‘cover’ the population provided and opposed both by coalition forces and local militias, AQI lost footholds in key cities like Ramadi and Fallujah. AQI would go on to rebrand as the Islamic State (Daesch/IS/ISIL/ISIS), rebuilding itself in the context of the Syrian Civil War and then exploding outward in 2013 and 2014. The Islamic State likewise followed a policy of spectacular violence, which garnered it a lot of attention and a lot of recruits, but also produced both a domestic backlash in Iraq and Syria and a foreign backlash, leading to the emergence of a broad anti-IS coalition that by 2016 had destroyed the core of the organization, although various international ‘franchises’ continue to exist. Similarly, of course, the 9/11 attacks on the one hand brought the perpetrators, Al Qaeda (the original) tremendous attention – and an extended anti-terror campaign that has left nearly all of their senior leadership dead and much of the organization shattered. The Taliban may have survived the wrath of the United States, but relatively little of Al Qaeda did.21

And this dilemma actually leads us neatly into the mirror-image of a terrorist insurgency: non-violent movements.

The Tactics of Non-Violence

Non-violence is a strategy.

I think that is important to outline here at the beginning, because there is a tendency in the broader culture to read non-violence purely as a moral position, as an unwillingness to engage in violence. And to be fair, proponents of non-violence often stress its moral superiority – in statements and publications which are themselves strategic – and frequently broader social conversations which would prefer not to engage with the strategic nature of protest, preferring instead impotent secular saints, often latch on to those statements. But the adoption of non-violent approaches is a strategic choice made because non-violence offers, in the correct circumstances substantial advantages as a strategy (as well as being, when it is possible, a morally superior approach).

If we boil down the previous section on insurgencies, what we see is that the insurgent wages his ‘attack on will’ through a prolonged campaign of (violent) disruption, often relying on his opponent (the state) to supply the morally uncomplicated spectacular violence by overreacting to his (violent) disruption. I stress disruption here because again, the terroristic insurgent does not expect to car-bomb his way to victory (because he has nowhere near enough car bombs or he’d be waging a different kind of struggle), he expects to car-bomb his way to popular support or at least to the withdrawal of popular support from his opponent. One key way to accelerate that process is to use the car-bombs to bait the authorities into a damaging overreaction. But equally, the peril the terroristic insurgent runs is that his car-bombs will alienate his own support (car-bombs are not popular) faster than it erodes the will of his enemy.

Now to my knowledge no advocate of non-violence has ever expressed their approach this way, but for the sake of understanding it, we could put it like this: under the right conditions, a non-violent strategy resolves the dilemma by retaining the ‘attack on will’ strategy and simply dispensing with the potentially supporter-alienating violence (the car bombs), by in turn exploiting the overreaction of the state.

To simplify greatly, the strategy of non-violence aims first to cause disruption (non-violently) in order both to draw attention but also in order to bait state overreaction. The state’s overreaction then becomes the ‘spectacular attack’ which broadcasts the movement’s message, while the group’s willingness to endure that overreaction without violence not only avoids alienating supporters, it heightens the contrast between the unjust state and the just movement. That reaction maintains support for the movement, but at the same time disruption does not stop: the movements growing popularity enable new recruits to replace those arrested (just as with insurgent recruitment) rendering the state incapable of restoring order. The state’s supporters may grow to sympathize with the movement, but at the very least they grow impatient with the disruption, which as you will recall refuses to stop. As support for state repression of the movement declines (because repression is not stopping the disruption) and the movement itself proves impossible to extinguish (because repression is recruiting for it), the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.

It is the same essential framework – create a disruption to draw attention and fatigue the opponent, use the attention to draw recruits to replace losses to sustain the disruption indefinitely until opposing will fails – as the insurgent, but delivered without violence.

We can see this basic framework in action in each of the Civil Rights Movements’ campaigns, applied both to each campaign individually and also to the whole movement. Let’s take the Nashville Campaign of 1960 as an example.22 The aim, formulated by James Lawson and drawing on Gandhi’s philosophy of non-violence, was to draw national attention to the evils of segregation (the big picture strategic aim) and begin desegregation in Nashville (the campaign’s specific aim). The campaign was preceded by a significant period of training beginning in 1958 because far from being a weak or cowardly strategy, non-violence demands remarkable discipline. In late 1959, Lawson sent out what were effectively scouting parties to determine the reaction they would get from disruptions at specific locations.

Via Wikipedia, a photograph of white onlookers attacking protestor Paul Laprad during the Nashville sit-ins in 1960.

The planned disruption was a series of sit-ins at lunch counters in downtown Nashville, which were at the time segregated. This would create real disruption and it had to: if there’s no disruption, then no attention is gained and the state does not respond. But the sit-ins would both demonstrate the unfairness of segregation in these stores, while at the same time the backlash against the sit-ins – hecklers, arrests – disrupted the stores’ business, in turn motivating more state reaction. The sit-ins began on February 13th, 1960, drawing angry crowds of pro-segregationist whites and disrupting business but also drawing attention and thus new recruits to the effort. As the effort thus expanded rather than contracted, by February 26th, the local state authorities (chief of police Douglas Hosse) warned there would be arrests and indeed the next day police first withdrew their protection of the protestors (encouraging white mobs to attack them) and then arrested only the protestors in the one-sided altercations that ensued. But of course spectacular, one-sided violence merely confirmed the moral rightness of the protestors, merely demonstrated the injustice of the system and thereby rallied new recruits to their cause.

So as the police arrested one batch of protestors, another group took their place. And another. And another. The police arrested some eighty students that day and then stopped because they hadn’t the capacity to arrest any more. Over the following days, arrests mounted (more than 150 before the end) but of course that just drew more attention, which drew more recruits and the police found themselves in the same trap as counter-insurgents: applying force was creating protestors faster than removing them and Nashville had real, sharp limits on how many protestors they could arrest. Which mattered because it meant the disruption did not stop, which meant that pressure – on local politicians and the business community whose businesses were disrupted – did not stop.

In the event, the Nashville sit-ins had a dramatic climax: the home of Z. Alexander Looby was bombed (dynamite thrown through a window) presumably in retaliation for his support. No one was killed, but this act of terroristic violence against the protest serves as a paradigmatic example of the above dilemma: intended to frighten them, it galvanized support for the protest, creating political conditions in which city leaders (notably Mayor Ben West, confronted by Diane Nash and C.T. Vivian) had to back down. That in turn led to the business owners – directly pressured by the campaign and now abundantly aware that state repression was not going to make the disruption stop – to negotiate with protest leaders, leading (albeit not instantly) to Nashville desegregating its lunch counters.

What I want to note here is that these actions were not disconnected or unthinking but carefully planned and selected. In particular the target of the action is intended to itself demonstrate the injustice (which thereby aids in gaining support) and to provoke overreaction. In this way a non-violent movement does not just receive violence, but it disrupts and provokes, it makes people uncomfortable as a way of drawing attention and baiting overreaction. Perhaps the most famous example of this principle anywhere in the world was Mahatma Gandhi’s strategy of non-cooperation, in which protestors simply refused to buy British goods, work in British industries or in jobs in the British governing institutions. Gandhi also protested the British salt monopoly in India by illegally making his own salt (very much in public, as part of a large demonstration), to which the British responded with more repression. The disruption forced a response (British authorities arrested tens of thousands of Indians): after all if the British authorities did nothing in response to these kinds of actions, British revenues in India would collapse and they would be unable to govern the country anyway. But of course violent British crackdowns further delegitimized British colonial rule.

Moreover, it must be noted that these protect actions, while non-violent were disruptive. They were designed to disrupt something, because if they didn’t disrupt anything, they could be ignored. It is important here to separate two kinds of ‘protest the right way’ arguments here: practitioners of non-violence pointing out that violent actors claiming to act for the movement harm it and people outside the movement demanding that the movement not be disruptive at all. In the very case it is very obviously true that for a movement pursuing a non-violent strategy like this, violent actors are actively detrimental because – again – this is all an exercise in messaging and they harm the message. Crucially, while violent actors may feel like they are accomplishing more by fighting the authorities violently, remember that the entire reason movements adopt these strategies is they they cannot expect to win by fighting the authorities directly, consequently violent actions accomplish nothing (you will not win a street battle with the cops)23 but they do harm the message. But at the same time some disruption is necessary to attract attention and a response by the state.

Martin Luther King Jr. is, in fact, incredibly clear-sighted about this in his famous 1963 Letter from Birmingham Jail. While he openly notes that he initially tried negotiation and that his direct action is also primarily a means to return to negotiation, he declares openly that members of the movement must be “nonviolent gadflies to create the kind of tension in a society that will help men rise from the dark depths of prejudice and racism” and that “the purpose of direct action is to create a situation so crisis-packed that it will inevitably open the door to negotiation.” He also notes that he timed his action specifically to produce the desired pressure on businesses by timing it for the holiday shopping season (disrupting business), delayed only slightly in order to avoid negatively impacting the results of a local election. Disruption was the point, because disruption draws the necessary attention to the message and invites the state to act in repression which draws more attention, empowering the message and thus delivering the ‘attack on will’ at maximum volume and moral clarity.

Like any strategic approach, this approach works best in specific conditions. In particular it works most effectively in challenging a regime, law or practice maintained by violence, because that very violence plays into the kind of ‘throwing technique’ whereby the non-violent activist uses the state’s own violence against it. Such movements can thus, by disobeying the unjust law, take the violence that necessarily maintains it – violence that is normally concealed behind acquiescence to the law – and abruptly surface it. Notably in the above examples, protestors are not doing something unrelated to their cause to draw attention but rather in refusing to support the day-to-day function of colonial rule or by sitting at a specific lunch counter these actions surface the specific violence maintaining that specific law. It follows that laws, practices or regimes whose connection to violence is more indirect are much harder to challenge with these strategies.24 Because – and this is important to continue stressing – these methods are about messaging because the ‘target’ is will, so the clarity of the message matters quite a lot.

On the other hand, non-violent approaches can succeed where violent approaches might not have succeeded. It is debatable if Britain in the early 1900s could have handled an effort at armed insurrection in the British Raj – they had successfully quelled a major uprising in 1857 (and smaller efforts in 1909 and 1915 had also failed), of course, but the failure of other imperial powers to resist independence movements in the 1950s and 1960s might suggest they would not have repeated this success. But evidently considerable British preparation to put down an armed uprising didn’t much matter because the Quit India Movement and its predecessors didn’t give them an armed uprising, it increasingly gave them a non-violent movement they were utterly unprepared to effectively counter.

Likewise, it is important to remember that the system of Jim Crow segregation in the American South was sustained by terroristic violence against African-American communities and, backed up by local and state police, extremely well-prepared to meet violence with greater quantities of violence. Horrific events like the Wilmington Massacre (1898) and the Tulsa Race Massacre (1921) were vivid demonstrations of the ability of the white supremacist Jim Crow regime to muster superior quantities of violence (and a greater willingness to murder innocent people) if the question came to a violent confrontation. But one of the things that comes out extremely clearly in reading something like T.E. Ricks’ Waging a Good War is that white supremacist leaders – perhaps none more clearly than Birmingham Commissioner of Public Safety Bull Connor – were wholly unprepared to fight a non-violent movement and instead by reacting with spectacular and horrifying brutality repeatedly played into the movement’s hands. By contrast it is striking, reading Ricks’ book, that the Civil Rights Movements tactics’ were most notably stymied in Albany, GA, where the local police chief, Laurie Pritchett realized that he could defeat their approach by having his officers act gently when arresting activists, by having enough jail space prepared for larger numbers and by charging them with things like disturbing the peace rather than with segregation laws, to avoid drawing attention to the injustice of the system.

Via Wikipedia, Bill Hudson’s famous photograph of police attacking Civil Rights marchers in Birmingham with dogs in 1963. Images like this served to demonstrate to much of the country the inherent violence and injustice of segregation.

(It is, of course, not an accident that COIN – counter-insurgency – strategy often follows similar injunctions towards avoiding provocation and what we might frame as gentleness. Fortunately for the protestor against injustice, the sort of people who tend to come to run systems of discrimination predicated on violence tend to be emotionally and constitutionally incapable of following that sort of advice – instead resorting by habit (often expressed in very gendered terms) to violence. The armies of Jim Crow had many a Bull Connor and very few Laurie Pritchetts, not by accident but as a direct result of the kind of system Jim Crow was. Also let me be clear: being tactically smart does not make Laurie Pritchett good; he was still defending a system of segregation, which was bad. Sometimes the bad guys have capable leaders, but they are still bad guys.)

All that said, there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest. This isn’t really the place to talk about the broader concept of ‘coup proofing’ and how authoritarian regimes secure internal security, repression and legitimacy in detail. But a certain kind of regime operates effectively as a society-within-a-society, with an armed subset of the population as insiders who receive benefits in status and wealth from the regime in return for their willingness to do violence to maintain it. Such regimes are generally all too willing to gun down thousands or tens of thousands of protestors to maintain power. The late Assad regime in Syria stands as a clear example of this, as evidently does the current regime in Iran.25 Such regimes are not immune to an ‘attack on will,’ but they have substantially insulated themselves from it and resistance to these regimes, if it continues, often metastasizes into insurgency or protracted war (as with the above example of Syria) because the pressure has nowhere else to go.

The reason regimes such as this aren’t more common is that they tend to function quite poorly: force is expensive and having to maintain large amounts of inward directed force continuously because the regime lacks a strong basis of legitimacy inhibits the effective function of everything else. Indeed, I would argue such ‘prison regimes’ mostly exist today because the negative returns to warfare mean that, unlike in previous eras, it simply isn’t worth the otherwise extremely doable task of better-functioning countries to conquer them. Consequently many authoritarian regimes attempt to ‘split the difference’ by ‘de-politicizing’ much of their population and repressing the small remainder. However building the apparatus and cultural assumptions to support that kind of regime takes a long time and a lot of resources – it generally has to be done well in advance, often as a decades-long project of regime security and coup-proofing. If it was easy to do, there wouldn’t be a half-dozen successful ‘color revolutions‘ in the last thirty or so years.

Conclusions

I haven’t stressed this yet, so let me do so now: obviously the ability of both terroristic insurgencies and non-violent protest movements to succeed is substantially based on the available media technology. It is not an accident that these techniques become increasingly prevalent in the 1900s with the emergence of mass-literary and mass media. Because these approaches are fundamentally about messaging, message technology matters a lot. Of course that technology has only become more rapid and more powerful since the mid-1900s, which further enhances the effectiveness of movements that can harness such technology.

To pull this all together, both violent insurgencies and non-violent protests have the same overall ‘theory of action’ – unable to defeat the armed forces of the state, they aim to instead defeat the state by striking at its popular base of support (at ‘will’ in the Clausewitzian sense). Consequently, because the ‘real battlefield’ is not the battlefield at all, but the minds of the various publics supporting the state, these campaigns – armed or unarmed – are essentially messaging campaigns, engaged in persuasion to convince the relevant public that it is more just or at least easier and less painful to give up the struggle and give the group some or all of its demands.

While such movements often fail, the fact that they can succeed at all is remarkable because these are efforts predicated on the fact of being so immensely weaker than the state they challenge that they have no realistic hope of ever meeting it force-for-force directly.

At the same time it is important to note that while the overall framework of these two approaches is the same their tactics are totally different and indeed fundamentally incompatible in most cases. Someone doing violence in the context of a non-violent movement is actively harming their cause because they are reducing the clear contrast and uncomplicated message the movement is trying to send. Likewise, it is relatively easy to dismiss non-violent supporters of violent movements so long as their core movement remains violent, simply by pointing to the violence of the core movement. It is thus very important for individuals to understand what kind of movement they are in and not ‘cosplay’ the other kind.

That difference ripples into smaller decisions. Insurgent movements generally seek to hide their membership from the state, because they wish to avoid the armed force of the state – they want the state to try to strike them, miss and hit civilians in order to create spectacular moments they can exploit. By contrast, non-violent movements do not seek to hide their membership from the state, because they seek to use state repression as a means to grow too large to arrest. Gandhi is quoted by (ed. Merton, op. cit.) as noting, “I do not appreciate any underground activity. Millions cannot go underground. Millions need not.” Civil Rights protestors repeatedly went to jail, touting their willingness to bear their arrest under their own names, openly, as a badge of honor. Non-violent movements instead invite documentation both of their numbers (they want to seem big) and of the state’s actions against them. Because whereas the insurgent hopes state violence will fall on non-movement-members, a non-violent protest is intentionally inviting state violence to fall on them because doing so dramatizes and exemplifies the injustice of that violence.

A View From America

With all of that laid out, let me draw some conclusions for the current tense political situation in the United States.

First, I think it is fairly clear that the ‘anti-ICE’ or ‘Abolish ICE’ movement – the name being a catchy simplification for a wide range of protests against immigration enforcement – is primarily a non-violent protest movement. Despite some hyperventilating about ‘insurgency tactics,’ anti-ICE protestors are pretty clearly engaged in civil disobedience (when they aren’t engaged in lawful protest), not insurgency. To be blunt: you know because no one has yet car-bombed an ICE or CBP squad or opened fire from an elevated window on an DHS patrol.26 As I hope we’ve already demonstrated, mere organization is not an indicator of an insurgent movement: non-violent movements have to be organized (even if just locally so), often more organized and better trained than violent ones. Effective non-violence, after all, comes less naturally to humans, for whom violence has been normal for at least tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of years.

But the tactics of anti-ICE protestors, most visible in Minneapolis-Saint Paul, follow the outline for non-violent protest here quite well. While protestors do attempt to impose a significant degree of friction on DHS immigration enforcement by (legally!) following and documenting DHS actions, that has also served as the predicate for the classic formula for non-violent action: it baits the agents of the state (ICE and CBP) into open acts of violence on camera which in turn reveal the violent nature of immigration enforcement. In this, DHS leaders like Gregory Bovino have essentially played the role of Bull Connor, repeatedly playing into the hands of protestors by urging – or at least failing to restrain – the spectacular, cinematic violence of their agents. Just as the armies of Jim Crow had many Bull Connors and few Laurie Pritchetts, it turns out that Border Patrol and ICE appear to have many Bull Connors; it remains to be seen if they have even one Laurie Pritchett.

Via Wikipedia a photo (2026) of postors in Minneapolis, protesting the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, both shot by ICE and CBP agents while protesting the administration’s immigration policy. As with the earlier Civil Rights Movement, spectacular public acts of violence by the state serve to delegitmize it, broadcasting the protestors’ point about the state’s unjust use of violence.

The result has been a remarkable collapse in public approval for immigration enforcement, mirrored by some pretty clear implications for elections later this year of the trend continues. Indeed, while doubtless many in the movement are impatient at what they perceive as the slow pace of movement given that they are trying to stop deportations happening right now, as non-violent movements go, the public perception shift has been remarkably fast. ‘Abolish ICE’ went from being a fringe position to a plurality position – close to a majority position – in roughly a year. Civil Rights and Quit India took decades. In part I suspect this has to do with both the prevalence of mass media technologies in the United States – a society in which nearly everyone has a pocket internet device that can immediately send or receive text, audio or most importantly video – and the increasing capability of those platforms. Where the public may have experienced the Birmingham protests through a TV screen at a delay on the nightly news, today high-detail color footage of DHS uses of force are beamed directly into people’s phones within hours or minutes of the event taking place.

Via Wikipedia, a photograph of anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis.

By contrast, the administration is fundamentally caught on the horns of a dilemma. Their most enthusiastic supporters very much want to see high spectacle immigration enforcement, both as an end unto itself and also as a sign of the administration’s continued commitment to it. In this, they act much like the white supremacist publics that sat behind men like Bull Connor demanding repression. But while the administration clearly remains unwilling to actually change its immigration policies, it desperately needs them out of the news to avoid catastrophic midterm wipeout. But ‘go quiet’ on immigration and lose core supporters; go ‘loud’ on immigration and produce more viral videos that enrage the a larger slice of the country. A clever tactician might be able to thread that needle, but at this point it seems difficult to accuse Kristi Noem of being a clever tactician.

Finally, we might briefly touch on the question of ‘coup proofing’ and if the administration is capable of insulating itself from public backlash. And the answer appears to fairly clearly be some version of ‘no.’ The United States electoral system is a tough nut to crack: almost anything strong enough to alter the results would be so obvious that you might as well just try and stage a coup. Meanwhile, as noted above, establishing the kind of regime that can rule by violence and the fear of violence in the United States is hardly unprecedented – that’s what the Jim Crow South was – but it is not a system which can be willed into existence overnight. Establishing the Jim Crow regime in the American South required more than a decade of terror and repression. Similar regimes overseas likewise took many years to construct and require a very large ‘in group’ willing to use violence – often on the order of a quarter to a half of a percent of the population. Indications that DHS is already struggling to recruit despite very obviously being far short of the number of agents required to effectively maintain an authoritarian state speak to the difficulty of creating such a large ‘insider’ force.27

In short then, it seems like the current administration’s immigration policy is facing a non-violent movement and is both vulnerable to that movement and actively playing into its hands, repeating the tactical and strategic mistakes the defenders of Jim Crow made in the 1950s and 1960s. From this framework, the non-violent anti-ICE movement appears to both be succeeding right now and stand a good chance of succeeding eventually, assuming it retains a strategic focus. If the administration could restrain its open embrace of anti-immigrant violence, it might be able to slow that process down, but it is unclear that the administration is actually capable of doing so, since anti-immigrant violence was essentially one of its core campaign promises.

But this dilemma is, of course, the core of why anti-ICE protest tactics work: because the system itself is unjust and its basic function (armed federal agents abducting people from the interior of the United States) unpopular, protestors following a non-violent framework – often all they are doing is just filming what ICE and CBP does – can present the administration with an impossible choice: defang the protests by no longer enforcing the policy by violence (essentially conceding their demands) or continue to engage in open violence against non-violent protestors and lose the battle for the minds of the public. So long as the policy remains to enact immigration enforcement through exemplary violence in places in the United States where that is staggeringly unpopular, the policy remains vulnerable to having its inherent violence exposed by non-violence.

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